Iron Ore Supply Rebounds, Pressuring Iron Ore Prices to Fluctuate Downward [SMM Commentary]

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Today, Dalian iron ore fluctuated downward. The most-traded I2505 contract closed at 832.5 yuan/mt, down 0.77% for the day. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell, while steel mills remained cautious, with some restocking as needed. Market transaction sentiment was average. In Shandong, mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 823-825 yuan/mt, down 5-10 yuan/mt from last Friday. In Tangshan, PB fines traded at around 835-838 yuan/mt, also down 5-10 yuan/mt from last Friday. According to SMM shipping data, global iron ore shipments totaled 26.93 million mt, up 8.7% WoW. Among them, Australian shipments were 13.34 million mt, up 1.5% WoW, while Brazilian shipments were 6.72 million mt, up significantly by 33.4% WoW. SMM data showed that China's iron ore arrivals totaled 24.61 million mt, up 5.8% WoW. Both shipments and arrivals increased simultaneously, leading to a recovery in iron ore supply and weakening support for ore prices. Coupled with market rumors of a GDP growth slowdown in 2025, market sentiment slightly deteriorated. In the short term, the fundamentals of iron ore remain stable. With the Two Sessions approaching, market expectations persist, significantly impacting ore prices. Attention should be paid to macroeconomic news and end-use demand conditions.